What to Expect if There is a Trump-Harris Tie in the U.S. Election

While a tie is unlikely, it is possible, which is why every American’s vote is crucial in this tight race. Who wins the battleground states and which ones, will play an important role in determining the outcome of the election (Clay Banks/Unsplash).

As Americans have hit the polls in the past few weeks and will continue to do so for Election Day today, many wonder what would happen if there is a tie in the Electoral College between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The 2024 Presidential Election is set to be one of the closest races in history, so it’s possible that the race to 270 could end up in a tie.

Article by Ella Doda, Senior Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON - Today, Tuesday, November 5th is Election Day for Americans throughout the United States and as they hit the polls to cast their ballots, Americans can’t help but wonder, “What if it’s a tie?” More than 83 million ballots have already been cast during early voting. Both candidates have had a jam-packed campaign trail, fighting to maintain their respective parties’s states and the seven key battleground states. The race to the presidency may end this week, unless there is a tie like the early polls show. 

The Electoral College was designed to make it possible for an election to end up in a 269-269 tie vote, but this has only happened once before in previous presidential elections in the 1800s between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr. The 23rd Amendment, which gives the District of Columbia three additional electors, makes the total electors 538 (435 House of Representatives; 100 Senate) with an even 269-269 split. All of the states get two votes for each senator and a vote for each member of the House of Representatives. However, with a change in the U.S. Census, the number of representatives in the House has changed since 2020. Since the House of Representatives is divided among the states based on population, every 10 years there is a chance that the House seats change per state. With the way the 2020 U.S. Census data has fallen for this past decade, several battleground states can now make this 2024 Presidential race even closer than expected. 

Colorado, Florida and North Carolina each gained a vote in the Electoral College as a result of the 2020 U.S. Census, while Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania each lost one seat. Texas gained two electoral votes. Although states across the U.S. have seen changes to their number of votes, the swing states have only seen a collective drop from 94 to 93, which makes a tied election less likely through one of those combinations. The seven swing states in the 2024 Presidential Election are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina. 

Nebraska and Maine take a different approach to allocating their electoral votes, called the Congressional District Method. Instead of the winner-takes-all approach, this allows for the possibility of a tie, where Nebraska’s district in 2020 was flipped from red to blue. Omaha’s swing district, the “blue dot”, prepares for another close race in 2024. According to CNN, if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020, but Trump claims victory in Michigan and Pennsylvania, there would be a tie, for example. There are numerous scenarios in which a 269-269 vote can be cast. 

So what happens if a tie occurs? The next step is a “contingent election.” If no candidate wins the majority of the Electoral College votes, the new Congress set to be sworn in in early January, would decide who wins the election. The House chooses the President and the Senate chooses the Vice President. Both of these outcomes were enacted through the 12th Amendment in 1804. After members of Congress meet to determine the tie and no majority, the contingent election will occur on January 6, 2025. The House would choose among the top three finishers, while the Senate the top two. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the race in August, encouraged his supporters to vote for him in safe Democratic and Republican states but attempted to remove his name from the ballot in key battleground states. The Supreme Court denied this request, but RFK Jr. told his supporters to vote for Trump in the seven battleground states. With his name still on the ballot as an independent, he could be in the top 3 that the House votes for if it comes down to a tie. 

The House is unable to vote as 435 individuals; they vote by state delegation. 26 state delegation votes, the majority, would win. If they do not select a president by January 20th, Inauguration Day, the Senate’s pick for Vice President would be the temporary President of the United States. The Senate gets to cast their votes individually, making for less of a potential gridlocked situation. If both are stuck in gridlock, the successor would be the current speaker of the House. 

While a tie is unlikely, it is possible, which is why every American’s vote is crucial in this tight race. Who wins the battleground states and which ones, will play an important role in determining the outcome of the election. This week, America will find out for sure what the next four years in the United States will look like. Will it be the first female President of the United States or an incumbent hoping to win again for his second term? Or will it be tied?